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Prediction for CME (2024-05-03T02:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-05-03T02:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/30409/-1
CME Note: A faint CME with narrow brighter front with filamentary structures (likely the bulk) and a wider fainter but slower front (likely the shock). The source is the X1.6 class flare (N26E05) from AR 3663 peaking at 2024-05-03T02:22Z and an eruption with a faint narrow ejecta seen in AIA 193 directed mostly towards the NE and a faint dimming mostly NE of the active region and post-eruptive arcades seen in AIA 193. Arrival signature: gradual CME arrival signature (likely a flank impact/glancing blow) which on 2024-05-06 is followed by the onset of a high speed stream. There is no shock but a steady growth in magnetic field to 16nT on 2024-05-06, accompanied by rotation of all 3 magnetic field components, with a prolonged bout of negative Bz (below 10 nT) on the evening of 2024-05-05. The ICME signature also includes an initial build up of ion density and temperature, followed by drops in both parameters.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-05-05T11:30Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-05-06T06:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

Simulation for the narrower brighter front with filamentary structures which was deemed likely to be the bulk of the CME. (There is also a much wider fainter front which was also analyzed and labeled as a shock).

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/30412/1
Model Inputs:
2024-05-03T02:48:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-20.0, Lat.=33.0, Speed=972.0, HalfAngle=18.0, Time21.5=2024-05-03T06:05Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-05-06T06:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=2
(kp)180=4

Other Location(s) Impact:
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-05-06T08:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240503_060500_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240503_060500_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240503_060500_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240503_060500_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240503_060500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240503_060500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240503_060500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240503_060500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240503_060500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240503_060500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240503_060500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240503_060500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240503_060500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240503_060500_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 46.07 hour(s)
Difference: -18.50 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Anna Chulaki (M2M Office) on 2024-05-03T13:26Z

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